Risk Estimator — Types 6, 16 & High-Risk
Before you begin:
Are you currently experiencing symptoms or have you recently been in contact with someone who tested positive?
Have you been vaccinated against HPV (e.g., Gardasil or Gardasil 9)?
This tool estimates risk based on demographic and lifestyle factors for people without known symptoms or exposure. It is not designed to assess the likelihood of infection after a specific exposure or to evaluate active symptoms.
If you have symptoms or known exposure, lab testing is the appropriate next step. A healthcare provider can order the right tests and interpret the results for your situation.
This calculator was trained on pre-vaccination-era data (2007–2010), when HPV vaccines were not yet widely adopted. The models do not account for vaccination status.
Gardasil 9 protects against HPV types 6, 11, 16, 18, and five additional high-risk types — covering all three types estimated by this calculator (HPV-6, HPV-16, and high-risk 16/18). If you are vaccinated, your actual risk of infection with these types is significantly lower than what the calculator will show.
You are welcome to continue, but keep in mind that the estimates will not reflect the protection your vaccination provides.
Human papillomavirus (HPV) is the most common sexually transmitted infection. Most sexually active people will acquire HPV at some point. This calculator estimates serum antibody positivity for three HPV categories using three independent gradient-boosted classifiers trained on NHANES serology data (2007–2010, ~7,600 participants):
Each percentage represents the estimated probability that a person with your profile has serum antibodies for that HPV type. Biological sex is the strongest predictor — women have significantly higher seropositivity rates than men. Number of lifetime sexual partners and age at first sex are also key factors. The red line on each gauge shows the US population average.
This calculator estimates the probability that you have serum antibodies for HPV types 6, 16, and high-risk 16/18, based on patterns in NHANES serology data. It does not test for the virus, detect active infection, or provide a diagnosis.
The models estimate natural infection based on pre-vaccination-era data (2007–2010) and do not account for vaccination. If you are vaccinated with Gardasil 9, your actual risk of infection with covered HPV types is much lower than what the calculator shows. Vaccination is the most effective HPV prevention available.
HPV-16 is a high-risk type linked to cervical, anal, and oropharyngeal cancers. HPV-6 is a low-risk type that primarily causes genital warts. The "high-risk 16/18" category combines HPV-16 and HPV-18, which together cause approximately 70% of cervical cancers.
Active HPV infection is typically detected through HPV DNA testing (often done alongside a Pap smear for cervical screening). There is no FDA-approved HPV test for men, though anal Pap smears may be used in some clinical settings. The serum antibody tests used in our NHANES training data detect past exposure but are primarily research tools, not clinical diagnostics.
Most HPV infections clear on their own within 1–2 years without treatment. However, some infections persist and can lead to genital warts (low-risk types) or precancerous changes and cancer (high-risk types). Regular screening (Pap smears and HPV co-testing for women) is important for detecting precancerous changes early.
The CDC recommends routine HPV vaccination at age 11–12 (can start at age 9), catch-up vaccination through age 26, and shared clinical decision-making for adults 27–45 who haven't been vaccinated. Gardasil 9 protects against 9 HPV types, including those that cause most cervical cancers and genital warts.
Yes. High-risk HPV types (especially HPV-16) can cause penile, anal, and oropharyngeal (throat) cancers in men. HPV-related oropharyngeal cancer rates have been increasing in recent decades and now exceed cervical cancer rates in the US. Vaccination is recommended for all genders.
See a healthcare provider if you have genital warts, abnormal Pap results, are due for cervical cancer screening, want to discuss HPV vaccination, or have concerns about HPV exposure. This calculator is for education only and cannot detect active infection. STDCheck.com offers a comprehensive 10-Test Panel that screens for multiple STDs at once.
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